Estimating flight-level price elasticities using online airline data: A first step toward integrating pricing,demand, and revenue optimization

We estimate flight-level price elasticities using a database of online prices and seat map displays. In contrast to market-level and route-level elasticities reported in the literature, flight-level elasticities can forecast responses in demand due to day-to-day price fluctuations. Knowing how elasticities vary by flight and booking characteristics and in response to competitors’ pricing actions allows airlines to design better promotions. It also allows policy makers the ability to evaluate the impacts of proposed tax increases or time-of-day congestion pricing policies. Our elasticity results show how airlines can design optimal promotions by considering not only which departure dates should be targeted, but also which days of the week customers should be allowed to purchase. Additionally, we show how elasticities can be used by carriers to strategically match a subset of their competitors’ sale fares. Methodologically, we use an approach that corrects for price endogeneity; failure to do so results in biased estimates and incorrect pricing recommendations. Using an instrumental variable approach to address this problem we find a set of valid instruments that can be used in future studies of air travel demand. We conclude by describing how our approach contributes to the literature, by offering an approach to estimate flight-level demand elasticities that the research community needs as an input to more advanced optimization models that integrate demand forecasting, price optimization, and revenue optimization models.     

Prioritizing new bicycle facilities to improve low-stress network connectivity

This paper introduces a new method to prioritize bicycle improvement projects based on accessibility to important destinations, such as grocery stores, banks, and restaurants. Central to the method is a new way to classify “bicycling stress” using marginal rates of substitution which are commonly developed through empirical behavioral research on bicyclist route choice. MRS values are input parameters representing bicycling stress associated with the number of lanes and speed limit of a street. The method was programmed as a geographic information system tool and requires commonly available data. The tool is demonstrated on three improvement scenarios that were recently proposed for Seattle, Washington. The full build-out scenario consists of 771 projects that include various new bike lanes, protected bike lanes, and multi-use trails. The tool produces priority rankings based on a project’s ability to improve low-stress connectivity between homes and important destinations. The analysis identifies specific areas and neighborhoods that can be expected to exhibit better bikeability. Transportation planners can use the tool to help communicate anticipated project impacts to decision-makers and the public.     

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高速铁路为人们提供了一种高效的运输方式.本文借鉴弹性系数法的相关理论,首先运用广义费用函数测算样本中高铁开通前后两地区综合客运成本的变化,结合两地区高铁开通前后客运量的变化得到了运输成本弹性系数,用于衡量两地区对于高铁开通的迫切性程度,从而在另一个层面衡量高铁建设的可行性.然后根据运输经济学及新经济地理学的相关理论,从人口、距离、人均GDP差异、平均人均GDP和产业结构相似度5个维度对样本的运输成本弹性系数进行建模,运用神经网络的方法来拟合其对运输成本弹性系数的影响情况,并以此为依据来测算北京市和张家口市对即将开通的京张高铁的迫切性程度.     

功能梯度材料的无网格局部Petrov-Galerkin方法

无网格局部Petrov-Galerkin(MLPG)法是近几年发展起来的一种无网格方法,它不需要任何背景网格和积分网格,较适合处理非均匀材料.文中将MLPG方法应用于功能梯度材料的三维问题,对功能梯度材料的力学行为进行了分析,编制了相应的计算程序,得到了满意的结果.     

城市轨道交通票价弹性研究

价格是影响交通方式选择的重要因素。分析了影响城市轨道交通的票价弹性的因素,总结归纳了国外与城市公共交通相关的票价弹性研究结果。从票价弹性的影响因素出发,分析了城市轨道交通票价弹性的相关影响因子,并对国内城市轨道交通票价政策的制定提出了建议。     

基于疲劳损伤机理的混凝土冻融劣化模型分析

结合动弹性模量相对值的变化特点,对不同系列的混凝土试件进行了抗冻试验,基于疲劳损伤机理建立了混凝土冻融劣化模型,并引用相关试验数据对模型进行了验证,结果表明建立的模型与冻融试验数据相关性非常好,能够较好地反映混凝土冻融损伤劣化规律,可作为预测混凝土冻融损伤和寿命的新方法。     

Role of the Railways in the Future of Air Transport

Abstract

The role of the railways in the air transport industry is usually limited to provision of access to airports. However, the development of high-speed rail networks and the congestion and environmental problems faced by the air transport industry suggest the railways could have a greater role in working with the airlines to provide an integrated transport service for medium-distance journeys (up to 800 km). Many air journeys involve two flights and a transfer at a hub airport. The alternative being investigated here would replace air journeys by a rail journey and a flight, and a transfer between them at the hub airport. Such integration could offer a positive alternative to aircraft on some routes and lead to railway journeys to airports becoming part of air transport services, and not only to provide access to them. Integration could therefore provide a better use of available air capacity rather than duplicating some high-speed rail routes and services.     

C20喷射混凝土冻融力学试验

采用喷大板法制做C20喷射混凝土试件,使用压力试验机对经历不同冻融循环次数的试件进行了抗压和抗拉强度测试,分析冻融循环作用下其变化规律,采用共振法和超声波法对经历不同冻融循环次数的喷射混凝土进行动弹性模量测试,分析其抗冻耐久性,并对经历不同冻融循环次数下的试件外观进行了描述。研究结果表明：冻融对喷射混凝土的抗拉和抗压强度影响较大,随着冻融循环次数的增加,抗拉和抗压强度衰减程度增大,相对动弹性模量也逐渐衰减,呈线性降低趋势;C20喷射混凝土的相对耐久性指数非常低,经历50次冻融循环后的耐久性指数为10.1%,与C20普通混凝土相比,其相对耐久性指数更低,抗冻耐久性更差;C20喷射混凝土经历75次冻融循环后出现严重的酥碎剥落情况,不能满足工程抗冻性要求。     

移动荷载下粘弹地基上刚性道面板响应分析

文中以一种更符合机场刚性道面实际情况的力学计算模型——移动荷载作用下粘弹性地基上无限大弹性薄板系统来研究道面弯沉的求解。应用线性系统的叠加原理和坐标变换，建立求解系统的动力响应广义积分公式，把运动荷载问题转化为获取位移脉冲响应函数。利用拉普拉斯和汉克尔变换求解板在瞬时点源荷载作用下的解，再结合广义积分得到道面板在移动荷载作用下的弯沉解析解。     

连续PC刚构桥下挠变形敏感因素分析

连续PC刚构桥施工过程中受力复杂，变形影响因素众多。文章以在建的罗天乐大桥为例，从收缩徐变、张拉龄期、弹性模量、容重、预应力参数等方面进行参数影响量分析，指出大跨度连续刚构桥线形控制中须重点关注的参数．并介绍了减少跨中下挠的设计与施工方法。